What are the odds of getting als?

Hi,

Hope everyone is feeling peaceful today,

I wanted to know if anyone knows the odds of getting als?

Someone mentioned 15 in a million. Are most people REALLY mainly over 55, as they say.

I wouldnt ask anyones age but it just seems that the pamphlets say its unlikely before age 50, thats not what it seems to be.

The last I heard it was about 1 or 2 in a hundred thousand. 45-65 is the general age range but we've heard from 16 year olds up to 88. If you look around in here there are a few threads on age at diagnosed.

AL.

TY Al,

So 15 in a million sounds correct or at least in the ballpark.

Im not familiar on doing searches?

TY again for your time,

Up above the top of this thread page is a search bar. Click on it and type in a few key words and it will find posts or threads containing those words. Try reading the FAQ up top as well.

AL.

There are different ways to figure the odds. You can look at the incidence, how many people per 100,000 get it per year. That's around 1-2 in 100,000. You can also look at the prevalence, how many people have it at any point in time. That is running about 7-10 per 100,000. I think the equation works out as:

prevalence = incidence * average survival time

Another figure is the lifetime risk of getting ALS, which is higher than I would have thought. There are different estimates around but a ballpark figure would be 1 in 1000 to get ALS at some point in your life. So the odds are low but not lottery-ticket low.

As far as the effects of age, older people in their 50s and 60s are at greatest risk. (Sorry, I mean youngish people in their 50s and 60s.) People in their 40s have about 1/3 the risk of 60-somethings, while in the 30s the risk is down to about 1/10 as high; and in the 20s it is much less still. That is one reason why so many people who come on here in their 20s and early 30s should not really be worrying too much. It can happen at that young age but the odds are low and most of the time it will be something else besides ALS.

Great explanation Hal. (I have many years experience in math and education, so I can say 'well done' and know what I'm talking about 8)

Al & Hal,

Ty,

So well put!